Hyperforecasting is a groundbreaking method to train the unconscious/sub-symbolic and conscious/symbolic systems to improve accuracy in making forecasts/predictions. The process relies on intensive conscious research followed by layers of intuitive tempering to reduce “attentional blindness” in our cognitive/embodied/attention systems. Our brain is always creating generative models of the probable future using our sub-symbolic Bayesian system, models, which are then then buffered and smoothed using sophisticated unconscious processing. The end result is graceful migration from present to the future. The evolving future prediction and buffering cycle is similar to the “speculative execution” carried our by parallel processors in computer processing. Hypeforecasting utilizes the bio-inspired mechanisms that enable creation of generative predictive models towards improving understanding, judgement and forecasts of evolving or contingent events.
The Hyperforecastingprocess was born many years back inspired by a deep understanding of Eugene Gendlin’s “Focusing” method. Over the next few years, significant upgrades were made to Gendlin’s obsolete model from bolt up using obsessive research from Artificial Intelligence, Complex Systems, Biological and Artificial Intuition, Evolutionary Psychology and 26 other subjects. Hyperforecasting is the only prediction/forecasting method which also pulls data feed for analysis through unconscious to unconscious communications besides other routine methods such as “Structured Analysis”, “Expert Judgement”, “Qualitative” and “Quantitative Methods“. It is similar to accurately reading other’s minds or to fly close to the center of the hurricane eye to accurately measure and map the evolving forces impacting events and people miles away from the center. The results may seem magical but the process is a less magical counter-intuitive method that we take for granted.
In ancient times, an Oracle or a Seer was someone whose counsel was sought by others as they provided wise and insightful predictions of the future. Forecasting the future was considered a divine faculty as we barely understood the functioning of human mind and brain. Michel de Nostredame also known as Nostradamus, a physician by profession in France, was one such well known and reputed Oracle. His book Les Propheties, first printed in 1555, has since been printed almost every two years. Many credit him with predicting with some accuracy some milestone global events. His criticsclaim that his predictions were nothing more than garbled semantics which was twisted into words to match the world events. Some has even claimed that Nostradamus was suffering from mental disorders.Our premise is that both his followers and critics were correct in their interpretation of forecasting skills. Out of the many forecasting methods, Genius Forecasting was consider an Intuitive ability and either worshiped by few or discarded by many. Intuition was considered magical by some while mundane by the scientists. There were no known methods of improving Intuitive Judgement as well as measuring accuracy those days. Intuitive Judgement when translated into language created so many diverse meanings that the critics also had reasonable claims. Words and Semantics have the ability to twist meanings in any direction.
If we notice our daily lives, we are always forecasting our future. We use our neural network to predict how much groceries we will consume next week, how much money we need to save and so on. However, applying the same ability to make future predictions is riddled with challenges and errors. Hyperforecasting is the ability to use our massively parallel biological neural networks to make accurate Intuitive Judgement after being tempered with peripheral data and rapid cycling through multiple layers to remove cognitive bias. Thereafter, the intuitive judgement is translated into symbolic language while reducing the diversity in the symbolic framing. Hyperforecasting relies on creating unconscious mental models that improve accuracy and then testing them in new domains. Over time, the predictions become precise, more pointed and can be validated for accuracy on multiple levels. Recent research is strongly pointing to the fact that those who can accurately detect deception do it unconsciously. Similarly, we have developed a methodology to unconsciously forecast the future when combined with conscious research, unconscious tempering and rapidly upgrade our prediction driving neural networks. To hyperforecast, we must be ready to live on edges, to scavenge useless pieces of information using horizon scanning and then using Intuitive Sense-making to metamorphose value from it.
Forecasting and predicting the future is a challenging skill ridden with judgment Errors regarding accuracy and timeliness. Intuitive Forecasting a.k.a Genius Forecasting a.k.a Hyperforecasting has been viewed with significant doubt by the scientific community. Most of the forecasting methods utilized today are termed Expert Forecasting. However, Genius forecasting has resulted in more accurate forecasts and predictions than expert forecasting. Recent research has indicated that smart people or subject matter experts are not any better at forecasting due to steep gradient buildup of inherent cognitive biases. Cognitive Biases are fairly easy to acquire, but, extremely challenging to relinquish. Genius Forecasting is a set of steps which can be taught to anyone ready to learn. Many of us fail to realize that after carrying out all the data based futures modeling, experts significantly rely on their intuitive judgment. Hence, expert forecasting is nothing more than intuitive judgment. Learning how to make an accurate intuitive judgment is not an easily transferable skill. As a matter of fact, errors in judgment are known to be the weak link in performance across all contexts. Errors in judgment are the biggest cause of spoiled careers, geopolitical crises, failed relationships and faulty predictions. Experts have been ignoring intuitive judgement for many years and the results are evident in surprises or prediction shocks across all contexts.
Recent research has indicated that smart people or subject matter experts are not any better at forecasting due to steep gradient buildup of inherent cognitive biases
After more than a decade of hibernation and quietly testing the ability to significantly improve genius forecasting via leverage intuitive judgment in multiple contexts, we have developed an accurate framework on how experts can generate accurate intuitive forecasts easily and measurably. For the very first time, we have been able to unlock and model the functioning of our extremely powerful Biological Neural Networks (BNN’s) to generate accurate intuitive forecasts. The process has built-in measurables to avoid error attribution.
Few know that human brain is a natural prediction mechanism (it is always predicting) which evolved over centuries into a powerful linear and non-linear pattern recognition biological equipment. The skill to accurately forecast and predict the immediate and long-term future is riddled with challenges as one requires an optimal utilization of our intuitive and rational mind working in a concert with each other. Only that we can incrementally improve judgement, assertion, and decision making. Experts who claim to be experts rarely understand the difference between knowledge acquisition and intuitive understanding. As a result, experts may propagate significant intuitive errors over their lifespan while being trusted as subject matter experts. Intuitive expertise is extremely hard to develop and only top 1-2% high performers can claim to have intuitive expertise in a complex field such as forecasting. The most important factor in improving forecasts and prediction is the ability to capture and develop Intuitive Foresight. Intuitive Foresight is a germ that has to be seeded and undergoes rapid iteration cycles till heuristics (direction of search) becomes more accurate.
Intuitive Foresight is a germ that has to be seeded and undergoes rapid iteration cycles till heuristics (direction of search) becomes more accurate.