How important is Luck Factor in Life & Startup Success ?
What is Luck and why has Luck remained a Fuzzy concept?
From the perspective of scientific inquiry, luck has remained as a fuzzy concept. Things are changing and hopefully, within the next few years, we will have a paradigm shift in understanding the luck mechanics using neuroscience, computational mechanics, psychology and Artificial Intuition. Let me first tell you the story of six blind men and the elephant.
The parable of the “six blind men and the elephant” first originated in Rigveda, one of the four canonical sacred texts of Hinduism. A group of blind men who have never seen or interacted with an elephant, touch, perceive and learn, conceptualize and predict what the various parts of the foreign object may be. They articulate each part as a spear, snake, a manual fan type object, a pillar and a soft wall. As they perceive a different part of the elephant body and are convinced about the accuracy of their perception, they are in a complete disagreement on what an elephant looks like to each of them. This story clearly outlines that humans have a tendency to project their partial experiences as the whole truth, ignoring other people’s partial experiences, and many times completing ignoring the whole truth. It may take the whole group to arrive at a holistic common understanding that the object of their fancy is an animal with long teeth, pillar like legs, large surface area and a tail. Alternatively, it may take one person to accumulate their partial experiences into a coherent and integrated whole over time. Isn’t learning similar to the above process of sustained discovery over a period of time when one if focused ?
The concept of Luck and discussions around it can be defined using the same parable. People who observe lucky people perceive them achieving effortless outcomes or even unstated outcomes. Ask some lucky people and they claim to have premonition through hunches (introspective feelings) which guides them to take lucky actions. Ask researchers and scientific philosophers like Richard Wiseman, the author of the book “The Luck Factor” and he will claim that lucky people are positive people who keep an open mind and look for opportunities (affordances) in the opportunity space. Sadly enough, science can be sold as semantics, but any scientific inquiry has to pass the test of critical analysis, double-blind tests and repeat-ability. Unfortunately, as we cannot create an elephant just by understanding it’s external characteristics, similarly we cannot understand luck using the partial explanation provided by different philosophers as of now. As a luck researcher who has spend my whole life understanding the neural, cognitive and behavioral aspects of luck, I hope to provide a fuzzy picture of the full elephant in this post.
Luck plays a crucial and significant role in Life, Mate Recognition, Investing and even Startup Success. Talent, Skills and hard work are only peripheral factors. Based on our detailed empirical framework around Luck Re-engineering developed over the last two decades, we have a repeatable process of improving Luck. Success in any domain is an emergent phenomenon which occurs at the cusp of skill, passion, hard work and luck using which we capitalize on the affordances (possibilities) existing in the environment. Before discussing the crucial role Luck plays in Startup Success, let us define Luck in a new way.
A Background Story
First, a little background information may help and you can jump to the next parts if this may be of much interest. I was always unlucky and found myself in the wrong place at the right time. Soon enough, due to my solitary meditative practices and somewhat bizarre journey, my peripheral awareness around my internal patterns increased. Due to the unique situations in which I found myself, I soon realized that my perfectly timed, unlucky actions were causing undesirable outcomes. I also realized that I was an expert in being “Unlucky”. Being a “reverse engineer”, I started a decade long work around understanding of my “Intuitive Expertise” around Luck. Starting with intuitive expertise, I navigated over to the neuro-psychological basis of selection and usage of affordances by agents in their environment. As I wrote elsewhere, our brain-mind apparatus runs on an extremely sophisticated multi-layered processes. If we can imagine a tower structure, at the bottom are our instincts, in the middle is intuition and on top are insights. While instinctively we are programmed with perfect timing of our decisions, we learn our intuitive patterns from our culture and family of origin. It is here where our sense of unconscious timing goes wrong. Once I understood this concept and over many years, I was slowly able to change my intuitive sense of timing, slowing training it to take right decisions at the right time. Soon enough, I was becoming an expert in being Lucky on few occasions and then, things took an exponential leap for me in every domain I found myself. I thereafter left a senior corporate level role to advise, consult and train my kindred spirits in various areas. Hopefully, this sets the context for this post and you can read more in an upcoming book “Luck Re-Engineering“.
What is Luck?
Luck is not Chance or Serendipity. Luck is not Intuition or Optimism. Luck does not have a proportional link with hard work. By working hard, we are improving the probability of Chance Success. Luck does not improve by Visualization, by keeping an Open Mind and by Trusting our Hunches. All these are observable and experiential phenomenon surrounding Luck. It is like explaining the external characteristics of an elephant without understanding the origin, inner working and the evolutionary forces that led to nature’s design of an elephant. Using an analogy here, if you start behaving like a rich person, you will not become rich. If you feel poor , but act rich, there is a great chance that you may go broke sooner than your peers.
I want to emphasize something here. Observable external behavior is not the cause of luck, it is the symptom of lucky internal mental patterns. Both lucky and unlucky mental patterns have a key component i.e. unconscious sense of timing which enables us to take unconscious decisions at the right or the wrong time. Decisions can go wrong due to quality of bad decisions as well as due to poor timing. Poor timing is both a construct of our surroundings and our interaction with the surroundings. Static surrounding environments can also create failure due to poor timing (the time at which we place our foot on stairs while we have missed the stairs below our feet). Dynamic environments are more wicked in which poor sense of timing can quickly get amplified (make the wrong joke with your boss, partner or a friend at the wrong time). As such, timing is about “unconscious situational awareness”. I emphasize the word “unconscious” as it is very difficult to be consciously aware of everything we are doing. However, our below consciousness processing a.k.a unconscious processing can process much higher bandwidth.
If your decisions lead you to failure very often, you can call yourself unlucky and vice versa. Both Unlucky and Lucky people acquired these mental patterns in early childhood from their family and cultural of origin. Those who struggle to achieve their outcomes are called Unlucky, while those who effortlessly achieve their outcomes are called Lucky. You may notice that both the patterns (Lucky and Unlucky) are a result on internal pattern recognition and decisions. Lucky and Unlucky people use Unconscious, Intuitive actions which create the results they experience. There is something happening inside of them which makes them Lucky.
Let me define Luck in my own way. Good Luck is an efficient way of effortlessly, right at the first time achieving an outcome equal or bigger than our expectation ceilings by taking incremental, intuitive and timely actions. Bad Luck is also an efficient way of effortlessly achieving undesirable outcomes. Efficiency, Unconscious Timing, Intuitive Expertise and Unconscious Decisions are the common denominator of Good Luck and Bad Luck.
Optimization is the art and science of making things better. Nature is always optimizing everything around us and human evolution is a perfect test case for optimization. Natural selection is the process by which living things that are most well suited to their environments survive and reproduce. Take the example of the “Saguaro Cactus” plant. It is native to the Sonoran Desert in Arizona, the Mexican State of Sonora, and the Whipple Mountains and Imperial County areas of California and survives under harsh heat conditions. The plant is able to extract and store water from a water devoid environment. As it stores water, it becomes an easy target for animals and it’s sharp thorns keeps animals at bay. This is a perfect example of a plant that has optimized the function of extracting and storing water followed by optimizing the function of avoiding being eaten.
My premise here is that our unconscious neural processes are an optimization mechanism and unconscious luck is a best case scenario of nature’s optimization at play. This Intuitive Unconscious Thought Theory (IUTT) proposes that all the thought processes, which enable one to set goals by making sense of, modeling, or making predictions of the experienced world, are unconscious. The mind has conscious awareness only of the outcome of those processes. This new definition of “unconscious thought” includes all neural processes of which we have no conscious awareness.
Historically, the term “unconscious” has had varied meanings. It was John A. Bargh, who proposed, in his NIH paper, that the term “unconscious” should mean the influences or effects of stimulus processing of which one is not aware and not the processing of stimuli of which one is not aware. “Unconscious” should refer to the process and not to the stimuli. In The Selfish Gene, Dawkins called nature the “blind watchmaker, the unconscious watchmaker,” because there was no conscious intentional guiding hand in producing the brilliantly intelligent designs of nature. The human mind represents the highest outcome of that design. The IUTT explains that conscious awareness is merely a narrow mirror, which reflects the outcome of unconscious thought processes produced by a blind watchmaker called intuition. With IUTT, “outcome” implies an awareness of both the results of a decision as well as a broad awareness of the reasons why the decision was made.
World Time and Mental Time
We have two time clocks one is the mental time that we intuitively feel when we feel the timing is right and the second is the world time, the external time benchmark by which live our life in a collaborative way. Many times, we have to do something in world time that our mental time does not agree with which creates a sense of internal resistance. Research has shown that mental time is the system level time which emerges due to the interaction of our multiple sub-personalities and multiple parts. For us to feel the timing is right, these parts need to work in coherence. The world time is super-imposed on us due to the cultural and family of origin experiences. A recent research study, published in the Journal of Neuroscience reveals that mental time is the result of many distinct neural systems tracking different timings working together. Research by Benjamin Libet has already proven that our unconscious systems make a decision and our conscious system simply follows the system decisions couple of seconds after the decision has been made.
It is my premise that for luck to work or our optimized neural systems to create the best case scenario, our mental time clock and world time clock needs to be synced with each other creating what we call is the perfect timing. Perfect timing creates an intersection of intuitively precise perception and intuitively precise action. As discussed elsewhere, our unconscious system works in a way so as to prepare for the partially observable and fully observable enviroment both temporally (unfolding of events over time) and spatially (seeing and experiencing something due to movement in space).
Luck, Patterns and Entropy
We can also say that Luck is a pattern. Patterns are omnipresent everywhere in nature, in our daily habits, in everything we do. Patterns are not chance events. Patterns have an anti-entropic quality. Anti-Entropy is a term associated with effects opposite that of entropy, namely order, and organization. If we observe life at a macro level, life is anti-entropic, it sustains and evolves in-spite of external forces trying to destroy it. Likewise, at the micro-level, our internal patterns are also anti-entropic. These patterns assist us in maintaining a pattern of perception and behaviour in constantly evolving circumstances or the environment.
Let us pause and reflect. We all have patterns, what are your patterns ?.
Do you usually succeed in achieving your aims or usually struggle? Both are patterns and both patterns create good luck or bad luck. Now, sometimes your existing success patterns may not help you succeed if the domain is completely foreign or extremely complex. Entrepreneurship, economics and everything that involves many interconnected elements are called complex systems.
Luck i.e the ability to achieve outcomes effortlessly over and over again inspite of varying circumstances is an anti-entropic property of our mental patterns. Luck is a repeatable pattern that one should be able to replicate, measure and improve. We tend to associate Luck with lottery winners or those who have unexpected windfall gains in life, but luck is much more than that. Let us assume someone won a lottery and seems to solve most of their problems in the short-term. I would not call them Lucky. These are chance events which cannot be replicated again easily. Only when a pattern repeats itself, can we call it luck. Serial Entrepreneurs become lucky provided their previous ventures have been successful or if they have had a pattern of creating last minute successes.
A more evolved form of Luck should be all pervading and repeatable pattern in our life where effortless achievement of our outcomes should be combined with joyful existence. I have successfully applied this to ventures in a private program named “Start Decelerator”. Anytime venture founders psychologically struggle but still achieve success, we do not rate them as lucky. We rate them successful, but the cost of success in such cases is very high i.e a lot of stress and struggle. As such, if you are psychologically, emotionally and financially struggling, the costs of starting up a venture outweighs the benefits. I regularly interact with a lot of entrepreneurs who privately wished that they could get a day job.
Do not become that Entrepreneur as it is very stressful.
Napoleon Bonaparte was a leader who used to lay significant emphasis on Luck and hiring people who were lucky. He was looking for a pattern in them. He was not looking for chance successes. Pattern based search was the key attribute in his selection of leaders. It is claimed that this avid recognition of successful patterns applied to different contexts in his life but responsible for his military successes. In an advanced forecasting method known as “Hyperforecasting”, we carefully and mostly unconsciously search for repeat patterns in entrepreneurs, economy, geopolitics and much more.