What is Hyperforecasting ?
* Hyperforecasting ©, Hyperforecast © and Hypeforecasts © are fully protected names registered and approved by issuing authorities. The term Hyperforecasting ©, Hyperforecast © and Hyperforecasts © are also also copyrighted and registered in multiple jurisdictions. The name and it’s processes may be not used without written permission.
Hypeforecasting is the use of the massive parallel and distributed processing of our brain and mind to predict our immediate and distant future. It is similar to crystal ball viewing with some major caveats. Our brain is the world’s most powerful natural prediction machine which does not come with a manual. The brain is always prediction and buffering our future stream into our consciousness. Any surprises that stream into our consciousness can lead to severe shock or chronic anxiety which overloads the embodied mind’s computational mechanism and risks our survival. The range, scale and time extended prediction framework is however locked down based on our preferred patterns of familiarity and our ability to deal with anxiety and shock. The methodology to use it for hyperforecasting largely remains hidden from our conscious awareness. Some of us, may mistakenly learn how to query this powerful super-computer. For the rest of us, the process and methodology remains hidden as it is counter-intuitive and model free (theory free).
Hyperforecasting was born when a bizarre incident blossomed at the intersection of a study of the operation of Individual/Collective unconscious mind, Mental Model Innovation, Machine Learning and (TRV) Technical Remote Viewing. The packets of information emerged as “Aha Insights” and once aggregated/integrated/applied/stress testing led to the creation of a process called “Hyperforecasting” based on the existing evolutionary predictive brain functionality. The method significantly improves the quality, accuracy, and timeliness of individual hunches, once the hunches are optimally decoded through twelve layers of advanced framing and tempering methods. Once we balance the use of intuitive processes with rational processes, accuracy rate skyrockets.
Hyperforecasting utilizes a multi-layered biological aggregation process where peripheral data is aggregated around a core nuclei (knowledge framework), which is then processed through multiple stress cycles of judgment and assertion improvement to reduce the error rate. Intelligence is the ability to predict our future on strategic level and take tactical actions to either influence the future or be ready for it (adaptation). Prolific inventors also unconsciously use the same hyperforecasting process.Within the population spectrum, there are some hyperforecasting naturals. However, majority of the prediction agents need well-structured domain knowledge or well educated intuition in a specific field. Hyperforecasting is the ability to intuitively perceive what others cannot at a given pount in time and space.
Hyperforecasting – Ability to See what Others Cannot
Evolution of Brain and Mind as a Hierarchical Adaptive System
Our brain and mind developed over millions of years of adaptive response to our environment. If we need to utilize the full power of this framework, we should learn how to optimally use this massively parallel, hierarchical, nesting and cascading, Bayesian predictive, experience trapping machine. The most powerful components of this super powerful system are below the threshold of our consciousness and remain active even when we are offline (sleeping, resting, in a coma). Our limited understanding of the power of this system is created by narrow bandwidth top-down symbolic systems. In Hyperforecasting, we start with a top layer processing and then gradually move to the unconscious layers till we can optimally train our neural network while untraining the overtrained and sub-optimal neural networks.
The Brain as a Natural Predictive Mechanism
Our brain and mind is a multi-layered probabilistic prediction machine, and human intelligence is all about prediction than IQ, EQ or other forms of intelligence. The various micro-intelligence skills work together to create probabilistic forecasts for our future and utilize embodied response modulation to unconsciously prepare us for the developing future. Our Embodied Predictive Intelligence © framework highlights that every human brain has a natural predictive ability. However, “out of the box,” our brains are statistically weak at accurate and well-timed predictions due to the limitations of the old brain (subcortical regions of the brain). The primates were required to anticipate the possibilities in a limited environment to ensure survival and reproduction, and we have inherited the limitations of the primate brains through genetic memory. The new brain (neo-cortex) that has developed on top of the older layers is inhibited in functionality by the previous layers. A good amount of practice and training is required to generate threshold competence in forecasting and predicting outcomes in global (wide range) and long range (temporal) dynamics. It is also important to note that any modifications of the genetic memory limitations lead to psychological discomfort which keeps amateurs or hobbyists away from such experiments.
Our brain, mind and its neuro-chemical-psychological mechanisms are made of multiple independent parts as highlighted in Meditation & Mindfulness Demystified. These parts work together, but, tend to maintain their individuality. This multi-agent complex system that makes up an individual human agent is embedded in a multi-agent system in which each human agent is interacting with other human actors. Our brain, mind and associated systems mirror a microcosm of the macrocosm in which we live. These multiple internal actors in a human agent work together use many micro-intelligences and embodied intelligence (response modulation) to continually create predictions for our near and distant future alternatives. With a ready stream of predictive cluster possibilities, our brain now recognizes the external developments through the incoming sensory array and creates a recognition and immediate unconscious action to help us adapt. An analogy may help one understand this brilliant complexity of our brain. Remember a time when we wake up in the middle of the night and cannot find the door handle out of the bedroom to go to into the alleyway to reach the washroom. Panic sets in due to prediction error based on priors (prior memory that the door handle is in one place). Our brain and mind quickly ramps up reliance on external sensory data (spatial dynamics of the room and its walls) rather than relying on priors and soon enough, we calm down, settle down, switch on the light and realize that we have not been abducted and are indeed in the comfort of our home.
The panic/anxiety that sets in due to an unfamiliar environment is the same function that makes us uncomfortable in seeking an accurate understanding of distant or future events. Using the tempering process that we teach in a robust process called “Sensate Reframing” we have been able to empirically prove that our threshold level of comfort directly impacts the range of data that we can perceive. If we panic easily at the thought of a negative event developing that could devastate us, the prediction framework of our brain shuts down all that data from reaching our awareness using the complex functioning of our Intuitive Mind and makes us feel comfortable.
Once we can tap into the massive intelligence potential of our bodies through increasing the range of our embodied response modulation, our brain can generate billions of possible scenarios for well-framed queries. The top and bottom layers of the predictive neural networks can then settle on a range of possibilities from best case to worst case. It requires a lot of practice to arrive at a probable case intuitive judgment as well as the assertive conviction of the baseline scenario. The interconnected processes and its challenges make it difficult for forecasters to remain calm and settled while remaining accurate at the same time. Predominantly, we arrive at a predictive range which is an inaccurate reflection of the real-time developments. This is the core reason why forecasters are mostly wrong.
When the worst case or best case scenarios play out against the predicted outcomes, the individual or group (s) can experience a significant shock to their nervous system. This shock threshold is continuously adjusting itself as limit switches do to limit uncomfortable data from reaching our conscious awareness. In short, our brain and mind system is very skilled at creating our Echo Chambers which reduce volatility and panic reactions from us. Our brain, body, and mind attempt to work diligently to protect us from the extreme range scenarios by limiting our awareness of our surrounding environment. A recent example was the shock felt by democratic supporters in the US 2016 elections. As one can see, the nervous system of these individuals first created an echo chamber and then created a paradox of prediction error. It can happen to anyone of us and happens in a much smaller scale on a daily basis (as in the example of waking up from sleep). This prediction error happens with corporate CEO’s (Nokia, Blackberry, Kodak, etc.) and happens with entrepreneurs when they realize that their prediction of the market behavior was spectacularly flawed. Education, Work Experience and other perceived advantages can be quickly offset by an uncooperative prediction error agent working within us.
In short, the internal mechanism is a prediction error minimization apparatus. As we open the range of our consciousness, we can access more of the computational possibilities (emergent insights) in our awareness. Once we combine the accuracy of emergent insights with an accuracy of timing, a tempered intuitive assertion (certitude) emerges in our unconscious system (Rock Solid Inner Knowing), and the accuracy rate of our predictions start improving.
Hyperforecasting is being utilized to convert risk into growth opportunities, however, has been applied across other contexts such as strategy development, entrepreneurial intuition enhancement, decision-making contexts as well as innovation contexts.
Predictive Range Chart (PRC)
A predictive range chart (PRC) allows us to educate our intuition using measured feedback. The range is appended below for better understanding. Within each cluster of possibilities, our brain/mind/embodied intelligence generates, there are millions of embedded possibilities within them. Accuracy rate remains low for most of us due to “out of the box” structural and cognitive limitations, poorly developed somatic markers as well as poorly structured intuitive expertise. It becomes even more challenging to evolve from forecasts to predictions due to these limitations.
What is Forecasting?
Let us first discuss “forecasting” before we can get to “Hyperforecasting.” As per Investopedia, Forecasting is the use of historical data to determine the direction of future trends. As per Wikipedia, Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on the past and present data and analysis of trends. A conventional example might be an estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is similar, but a more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or to less formal judgmental methods.
Forecasting is predicting that an event will happen, to a defined extent, clearly outlining the numerical probability of occurrence. Forecasting is a process of examining the evolution of alternative futures in a hyperdomain and estimating the most probable one (s). Effective forecasting can be empowering as it allows some degree of control over one’s future as if we influence the future. A range of forecasted alternatives is called a predictive range. Either one can shape the future to change its evolving direction, or one can develop an adaptive strategy to cope with it. Adaptation or Influencing strategies are all types of emergent strategy approaches. Chess players and great strategists use various versions of this same approach in their domains. Read how chess players approach developments in the game.
Types of Forecasting Methods
There are many types of conscious forecasting methods (we will expand on these methods in a separate post):
- Genius Forecasting
- Trend Extrapolation
- Consensus Methods
- Simulation Methods
- Cross Impact Matrix Method
- Decision Trees
- Scenarios Method
Types of Forecasters
A forecast is usually conducted by an individual, a group of people or an organization. They are all termed, forecasters. Without a forecaster and their discernment, there cannot be a forecast. Machines may be able to forecast, but without any judgment and assertion, it is simply an output of a query generation. Forecaster (s) can be “future aligner” or “future influencer”. The “Aligner” wants to be ready for the future with a superior adaptive response while the “Influencer” wants to change the future to meet its requirements. As per Natalie Dian (2009), between the “aligners” and “influencers” there are four (4) types of forecasters:
What is the difference between Forecasting and Prediction?
Forecasts are a subset of prediction and use multiple interconnected decision, judgment and heuristic processes. Both of the possibility spectrums involve four dimension(s):
- Individual Assertion (projection judgment)
- Accuracy (Acceptance Value)
- Precision (Repeatable Consistency)
- Timeliness (Projected Time of possibility emerging)
A forecast is a probabilistic judgment over a long period while Prediction is a definitive and specific statement about an event occurring. In hyperdomains, it is challenging to forecast in the hyper domain due to the constant flux of events, its transient nature, and the presence of unstructured cues in the environment.
The term forecast came from English’s Germanic roots, unlike predict, which is from Latin. Forecasting reflected the new Protestant worldliness rather than the other worldliness of the Holy Roman Empire. Making a forecast typically implied planning under conditions of uncertainty. It suggested having prudence, wisdom, and industriousness, more like the way we now use the word foresight – Source: Signal Versus Noise.
A forecast is about probability while prediction is about certainty.
It is our empirical observation that biological intuition signals certainty of an event using psycho-physiological inner knowing called RSIK © (Rock Solid Inner Knowing). These psychophysiological markers are error prone, can lead us astray and require extensive training to be used in uncertain contexts. Once properly trained the RSIK can be used to plan for long range events in our immediate environment. RSIK, once trained and applied to various contexts is a better forecasting tool than any theory based models or predictive models.
What is Hyperforecasting ©
Hyperforecasting © is a hands-on process based on the optimal operation of the human mind to forecast events in Hyperdomains ©. It uses a unique quadrangle concept i.e., a mix of theoretical models, statistical models, judgment frameworks as well as experience models. The unique process significantly improves the overall outputs of the process which can be further improved using internal (intuitive) and external (logical) feedback. As per Seer Sucker theory, experts (hedgehogs) make poor predictive forecasts, and foxes do much better by scavenging pieces of information into an aggregate. In hyperforecasting, we start with aggregation of existing research, move in a cyclical process from thesis to antithesis till our mental frames start stabilizing and pointing towards an outcome. Throughout the process, there is an active search for anomaly insights, active correction of cognitive biases and one keeps fine tuning the aggregated and synthesized forecast till a “Rock Solid Inner Knowing (RSIK)”. A few more cycles of stress testing and one is ready to make an assertion. Hyperforecasters are humans, are prone to error, and will regress to the mean unless the intuitive expertise skill is not actively honed by continuous deliberate practice.
“Hyperforecasting is a process than enables one to peek on demand into the future and invent the future”
It is our premise that the world is becoming a roughly distributed hyperdomain © which is full of “Wicked Problems”.The concept of “Wicked Problem” was coined by Rittel and Webber and describes situations with ill complete, ill-defined problems as “Wicked Problems”. These problems cannot be solved by quantitative methods as wicked problems are immune to reducibility. One cannot model these on a computer or in a lab. Our world is now more and more wicked world full of uncertainties. Hyperforecasting is at the frontier of foresight development or futures research that is based on the philosophy that the world is a hyperdomain, and conventional methods of forecasting are largely ineffective to achieve the desired effect.
Hyperforecasting is not divination. It is based on an in-depth understanding of the “Human Intuitive Spectrum” and combines the full utilization of the intuitive spectrum with conscious and theoretical models to arrive at a judgement.
What is a Hyperdomain ©?
The world consists of a large number of alternative futures. The further out we progress in a timeline (span), the number of possible futures exist together. Those big number of alternative futures combined with emerging possibilities create a chaotic environment and making sense of it becomes really challenging . The human brain is an adaptive biological mechanism which can forecast in these domains to a great amount of accuracy. Hyperdomain © is a fluid environment where chaotic emergent behavior combined with long range (timeline) leads to a challenging environment for forecasting.
Hyperdomains are ripe for the curse of dimensionality, but it takes on a new problem as the cues in this hyper environment are largely unstructured. It takes a human brain with a well-trained intuition and insight to make sense of unstructured data. Read about the difference between instincts, intuition and insights.
Hyperforecasting © in Hyperdomains ©?
Hypeforecasting is based on an 18-year research into the operation of the human mind and combined with deep insights into the operation of hyperdomains, improves the accuracy of forecasts and predictions. The human mind has evolved as a predictive mechanism and our neurology, psychology, knowledge acquisition process and adaptation to our environment work in concert to predict our immediate and future environment. However, our ability to effectively forecast and predict the future is sub-optimal at the best. Using Mental Model Innovation © combined with hyperforecasting components, one can significantly improve the capacity to forecast and develop an “Insight based Strategy.”
Hyperforecasting© and Intuitive Spectrum?
Biological Intuition is a superset of Logic and Rationalism, is a higher bandwidth processing mechanism (3million bits/second) versus 7 bits/sec for the conscious mind. Biological Intuition is mostly unconscious parallel processing which has a broad range of general purpose and special purpose functions. Our unconscious spectrum is made of Instincts, Intuition, and Insights. Intuition spectrum is a further subset of Intuition and is made of three parts (Expertise, Creation – Hindsight/Insight and Foresight).
As we will have discussed elsewhere on our blog, biological intuition was selected as a preferred toolkit for adapting to complex environments. A well trained and developed Biological Intuition can help us forecast and predict more accurately. Hyperforecasting utilizes trained intuition as a tool which is used intuitively by prolific inventors as well entrepreneurs. These outliers use the human intuitive process to predict evolving market disequilibrium accurately and to take relevant actions to create ventures around them.
What is Hyperinfluencing ©
Hyperinfluencing is an advanced level process based on Pheonix Gate II © (a hyperspace model around working of the global mind) where an individual or group can unconsciously and consciously influence and change the trajectory of the hyper forecasted predictive range. Mental Model Innovation © and Hyperforecasting © are pre-requisite programs.